I know there are people out their who have already had their fantasy football draft, but for most of us it’s not too far away and we’re in the process of getting ready for it. I have a few fantasy football drafts coning up and as always there are some questions especially at running back.
A few years ago making sure you got a true #1 running back in your fantasy draft became less and less important. For many years you needed that top tier running bac to even contend, but as teams started to go to backfield by committees that changed.
Wide receiver slowly took over as the position to draft in the 1st round and it even got to the point in most if not all leagues that more wide receivers where taken in the 1st round than running backs.
Last year however that changed. In all of the fantasy football drafts that I was in their where more running backs taken in the 1st round than any other position. The question is now; how will it go this season?
It looks like Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara will be right their at the top of the draft, but after that the questions can of start.
The obvious one is what will happen with Ezekiel Elliott and Melvin Gordon; who are both currently holding out. Both players are looking for new contracts and both have said that they’re willing to sit out the entire season. They’re two of the top running backs in the NFL, but it could be a big risk drafting one of them in the 1st round if there’s a chance that you’ll get nothing from them this season.
Then of course there’s the injury questions. How are Todd Gurley’s knees? It’s been reported that the Los Angeles Rams are looking to limit Gurley’s work load this season. If they do cut down on his carries will that affect his touchdowns? Gurley led all running backs with 17 rushing touchdowns last season. since the Rams won’t show their cards in pre-season on how they’ll handle Gurley you’ll have to pick him and hope that he puts up similar numbers to his former seasons.
James Connor battled injury last season missing three games, but this season he won’t have Le’Veon Bell’s name hanging over his head. As a clear #1 running back coming into this season Connor if healthy could be a top fantasy running back. Chris Carson could be in the same category as Connor. Carson played 11 games last season due to injury and you have to wonder what kind of numbers he’d put up if he can stay healthy. You could add in both Marlon Mack and Aaron Jones into this group of running backs even though they might be a little below Connor and Carson statistically they’re still solid #1 running backs if healthy.
Then there’s the running backs who get injured in camp or are recovering from an injury that happened at the end of last season. Phillip Lindsay was a huge surprise last season. He broke his wrist and missed the final regular season game last season and there are reports that he may be limited to start this season. Adrian Peterson had a sloid bounce back season, but has been dealing with an ankle injury that seems to linger; so there are questions there. Derrick Henry showed that he could be a #1 running back, but it’s unclear if he’ll be giving that chance this season. Henry is currently dealing with a strained calf; so it’s something to keep an eye on.
Then there are the teams that appear to be going with a running back by committee situation. It can be a risky move and you’ll have to find the running back in that group who’s either going to get the most carries or score the most touchdowns.
The Chicago Bears signed Mike Davis as a free agent and drafted David Montgomery to add to Tarik Cohen. The defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots have a mix of four running backs in their backfield; James White, Sony Michel, Rex Burkhead and James Devlin. The San Francisco 49ers signed Tevin Coleman this off season to add to their running back core that included Matt Breida and Jerick McKinnon who’s returning to injury. The Buffalo Bills brought in both T.J. Yeldon and Frank Gore with LeSean McCoy already on their roster. You can even add the Cleveland Browns into this mix. It looks as though Nick Chubb will start the season as the #1 running back with Duke Johnson picking up some snaps as a 3rd down type of back. It will be interesting to see how Cleveland will handle the situation in their backfield when Kareem Hunt comes off of suspension in Week 11.
Then you have running backs who are going into new offenses with new head coaches. You’ll have LeVeon Bell with the New York Jets, Joe Mixon with the Cincinnati Bengals and David Johnson with the Arizona Cardinals. Bell as everyone knows sat out all last season, but is a top NFL running back. Mixon is coming off of the best year of his young career and Johnson has been battling his way back from an injury he suffered two seasons ago, but did play in all 16 games last season. It looks like these three are solid 1st round fantasy picks and may even be Top 5 picks.
Kenyan Drake is in the same category as Bell, Mixon and Johnson, but he hasn’t shown he has the talent those three do. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Drake go in the 1st round in deeper leagues, but depending on the structure of your league he’s probably a late 2nd or 3rd round pick.
Christian McCaffery is going to be a top pick and deservedly so. He had over 1000 rushing and over 100 receptions. If McCaffery can find his way into the end zone a few more times he’ll be right at the top of the running back class this season.
These are just some of the questions coming into your fantasy draft. Will you go running back in the 1st round?
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After reading that carefully worded analysis, I’m doubly glad that I don’t involve myself in fantasy football!
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